Cost and production questions: what changed

September 10, 2026 · Current workshop and independent-form wording. We have separated different meanings of “cost at scale” so respondents can give the estimates they intend. Answer whichever questions you can usefully assess; a short explanation without a number is welcome.

Workshop form · Independent and follow-up form · Download the question specification

The 2036 questions

• A1 — Achievable production cost: the production-weighted industry average, using the technology and input conditions you expect in 2036, including hypothetical production if no qualifying plants operate.
• A2 — Conditional actual cost: the production-weighted average across qualifying plants, considering only outcomes where those plants actually produce.
• B — Probability of production: the chance that at least one plant produces at least 2,000 metric tonnes of cultivated-chicken biomass during 2036.
• C — Conventional-chicken cost benchmark: the chance that A1 is at or below the worldwide production-weighted average production cost per kg of conventional edible chicken meat in 2036. This retains the earlier relative-cost comparator. “At or below” is the explicit threshold in this revision; it does not mean within twice the retail price.
• D — Quantity sold: global cultivated-chicken biomass sales during the year, including the cellular component of blends, from producers of all sizes. Count each quantity once at its first commercial sale.

A1 is the central estimate. B is the next suggested question. A2, C, and D are optional, as are uncertainty intervals. The forms allow explanations instead of numbers. Paid evaluators and participants in detailed follow-up exercises are encouraged to address more of the questions and explain important gaps.

Shared definitions

Scale: at least 2,000 metric tonnes per plant per calendar year (2 kt/year). This revision makes the threshold inclusive; earlier wording said more than 2,000. Announced capacity alone does not count.

Industry average: total relevant production costs divided by total biomass output across qualifying plants. Higher-output plants receive more weight; do not substitute the cheapest plant or a single representative plant. If you imagine no plants producing at this scale, consider what the cost would be if a firm had chosen to do so.

Accounting: 2025 US dollars per kg of undifferentiated cultivated-chicken cell biomass at harvest, including annualized capital and operating costs, excluding downstream formulation, packaging, distribution, and retail margins. Wet weight uses 80% water as a reference; explain a different basis. Price estimates elsewhere likewise use production weights rather than an unweighted average of plants.

Benchmark C: conventional edible chicken excludes bones and other inedible parts, with comparable capital and operating cost boundaries. Harvested biomass and conventional meat differ in composition and processing needs. This is a production-cost benchmark, not a claim of equivalent finished products or retail-price parity. Explain consequential moisture, yield, or composition assumptions. C considers A1 across the full range of expected technological outcomes; actual CM deployment is not required.

2027: actual outcomes only

The 2027 section asks B, A2, and D for calendar year 2027. The previous fallback to advanced-pilot costs has been removed. If there are no qualifying plants, A2 is inapplicable, not zero. D may still be positive because smaller producers can sell products. Missing evidence is distinct from zero production or sales; formal forecasting resolution rules can be added separately if needed.

Earlier answers and the wording history

The May workshop form asked about costs “across all large-scale plants in the world,” without an explicit condition that those plants exist. A June 25 revision added that condition; the later independent respondents received that wording. The new questions separate these interpretations. Earlier answers have not been reclassified as A1 or A2.

In May, the scale definition was: “Plants producing more than 2 kt/yr (2,000 metric tons per year). We exclude smaller experimental/R&D facilities.” On June 25 the following sentence was added to the definitions: “Cost questions are conditional on large-scale commercial production being achieved — i.e. they ask about unit cost, not whether scale-up happens.” On September 7 that condition also appeared in a prominent scope note.

This revision gives the interpretations separate questions, explicitly specifies production weighting, introduces production probability and sales, and distinguishes calendar-year actual outcomes from hypothetical costs. The historical synthesis retains the submitted estimates with cohort and wording caveats. New responses are stored under a new question version and are not automatically pooled with the old cost fields.

If you answered before

You do not need to redo the entire form. Explain whether your earlier cost estimate was closer to A1 or A2, update any estimate you wish, and add a production probability if useful. Use your previous name or pseudonym if you want us to connect the responses. Earlier answers remain intact. The independent form is also suitable for returning respondents.

Related Metaculus questions retain their own wording and resolution rules; they have not been changed by this form revision.

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