# Cultivated chicken: cost and production question specification Version: cm-cost-2026-09-10-v2 Cost and production questions: what changed September 10, 2026 · Current workshop and independent-form wording. We have separated different meanings of “cost at scale” so respondents can give the estimates they intend. Answer whichever questions you can usefully assess; a short explanation without a number is welcome. Workshop form · Independent and follow-up form · Download the question specification The 2036 questions A1 — Achievable production cost: the production-weighted industry average, using the technology and input conditions you expect in 2036, including hypothetical production if no qualifying plants operate. A2 — Conditional actual cost: the production-weighted average across qualifying plants, considering only outcomes where those plants actually produce. B — Probability of production: the chance that at least one plant produces at least 2,000 metric tonnes of cultivated-chicken biomass during 2036. C — Conventional-chicken cost benchmark: the chance that A1 is at or below the worldwide production-weighted average production cost per kg of conventional edible chicken meat in 2036. This retains the earlier relative-cost comparator. “At or below” is the explicit threshold in this revision; it does not mean within twice the retail price. D — Quantity sold: global cultivated-chicken biomass sales during the year, including the cellular component of blends, from producers of all sizes. Count each quantity once at its first commercial sale. A1 is the central estimate. B is the next suggested question. A2, C, and D are optional, as are uncertainty intervals. The forms allow explanations instead of numbers. Paid evaluators and participants in detailed follow-up exercises are encouraged to address more of the questions and explain important gaps. Shared definitions Scale: at least 2,000 metric tonnes per plant per calendar year (2 kt/year). This revision makes the threshold inclusive; earlier wording said more than 2,000. Announced capacity alone does not count. Industry average: total relevant production costs divided by total biomass output across qualifying plants. Higher-output plants receive more weight. For hypothetical production, explain the mix of plants and their output weights; do not substitute the cheapest plant or assume an optimized mature industry merely because scale is specified. If you think production is technically infeasible, explain that rather than forcing a finite dollar estimate. Accounting: 2025 US dollars per kg of undifferentiated cultivated-chicken cell biomass at harvest, including annualized capital and operating costs, excluding downstream formulation, packaging, distribution, and retail margins. Wet weight uses 80% water as a reference; explain a different basis. Price estimates elsewhere likewise use production weights rather than an unweighted average of plants. Benchmark C: conventional edible chicken excludes bones and other inedible parts, with comparable capital and operating cost boundaries. Harvested biomass and conventional meat differ in composition and processing needs. This is a production-cost benchmark, not a claim of equivalent finished products or retail-price parity. Explain consequential moisture, yield, or composition assumptions. C considers A1 across the full range of expected technological outcomes; actual CM deployment is not required. 2027: actual outcomes only The 2027 section asks B, A2, and D for calendar year 2027. The previous fallback to advanced-pilot costs has been removed. If there are no qualifying plants, A2 is inapplicable, not zero. D may still be positive because smaller producers can sell products. Missing evidence is distinct from zero production or sales; formal forecasting resolution rules can be added separately if needed. Earlier answers and the wording history The May workshop form asked about costs “across all large-scale plants in the world,” without an explicit condition that those plants exist. A June 25 revision added that condition; the later independent respondents received that wording. The new questions separate these interpretations. Earlier answers have not been reclassified as A1 or A2. In May, the scale definition was: “Plants producing more than 2 kt/yr (2,000 metric tons per year). We exclude smaller experimental/R&D facilities.” On June 25 the following sentence was added to the definitions: “Cost questions are conditional on large-scale commercial production being achieved — i.e. they ask about unit cost, not whether scale-up happens.” On September 7 that condition also appeared in a prominent scope note. This revision gives the interpretations separate questions, explicitly specifies production weighting, introduces production probability and sales, and distinguishes calendar-year actual outcomes from hypothetical costs. The historical synthesis retains the submitted estimates with cohort and wording caveats. New responses are stored under a new question version and are not automatically pooled with the old cost fields. If you answered before You do not need to redo the entire form. Explain whether your earlier cost estimate was closer to A1 or A2, update any estimate you wish, and add a production probability if useful. Use your previous name or pseudonym if you want us to connect the responses. Earlier answers remain intact. The independent form is also suitable for returning respondents. Related Metaculus questions retain their own wording and resolution rules; they have not been changed by this form revision. Exact form wording Cultivated-chicken cost, production, and sales Updated September 10, 2026: achievable cost, conditional actual cost, production probability, and sales now have separate questions. Earlier answers retain their original wording. A1 is the central estimate. The other questions and uncertainty ranges can be skipped; you can also give an explanation without a number. CM_01 · A1 · Achievable cost in 2036¶ What will be the production-weighted average cost per kg of cultivated-chicken cell biomass in 2036, at a scale of at least 2,000 tonnes per plant per year? Production-weighted average: The average is total capital plus operating cost divided by total biomass output across plants at this scale, so higher-output plants receive more weight. Do not use the cheapest plant or a single representative plant. If you imagine no plants producing at this scale, consider the hypothetical cost at this scale. In worlds where there is no production at this scale, consider what the cost would be if a firm had chosen to produce at such a scale. Can you give an A1 cost estimate? Select one Yes No: production at this scale may be technically infeasible No: I cannot estimate it If you think production at this scale may be infeasible, you can explain why below. Your median estimate ($/kg, 2025 USD) Optional uncertainty range (10th and 90th percentiles) 10th percentile ($/kg) 90th percentile ($/kg) Reasoning or explanation (optional) CM_01 · B · Actual qualifying production in 2036¶ What is the probability that at least one plant anywhere actually produces at least 2,000 metric tonnes of cultivated-chicken cell biomass per plant in calendar year 2036? This means actual annual output, not nameplate capacity. Probability (%) (optional) Reasoning (optional) Optional 2036 questions: sales, conditional actual cost, and relative cost CM_01 · A2 · Conditional actual cost in 2036¶ Conditional on one or more firms producing at least 2,000 metric tonnes per plant during 2036, what will be the actual production-weighted average cost per kg across those plants? This can differ from A1 because worlds with actual scale may have favorable technology. If no qualifying plant operates, this is N/A, not zero. A2 is inapplicable when B is 0%. If you can give a meaningful cost estimate (optional) Median ($/kg, 2025 USD) Optional uncertainty range (10th and 90th percentiles) 10th percentile ($/kg) 90th percentile ($/kg) Reasoning or explanation (optional) CM_01 · C · Relative production cost¶ What is the probability that the production-weighted average cost per kg of cultivated-chicken cell biomass referred to in CM_01 A1 is at or below the worldwide production-weighted average production cost per kg of conventional chicken meat in 2036? Definition Conventional chicken means edible chicken meat, excluding bones and similar non-edible components, with capital and operating costs before formulation, packaging, distribution, and retail. Biomass differs in moisture, composition, and processing, so this is a cost benchmark, not finished-product or retail parity. Actual cultivated-meat production is not required for C. Probability (%) (optional) Reasoning (optional) CM_01 · D · Worldwide sales¶ How many tonnes of cultivated-chicken biomass will be sold worldwide during calendar year 2036? Count all plant sizes and only the cellular component within blends. Count biomass once at first commercial sale, not the total finished blend; exclude free samples and research-only transfers. This is unconditional: B can be zero while D is positive from smaller plants. Median sales (tonnes) (optional; zero is valid) Optional uncertainty range (10th and 90th percentiles) 10th percentile sales (tonnes) 90th percentile sales (tonnes) Reasoning (optional) Optional 2027 actual outcomes: B, A2, and D These questions concern actual production, costs, and sales during calendar year 2027. CM_01 · B · Actual qualifying production in 2027¶ What is the probability that at least one plant anywhere actually produces at least 2,000 metric tonnes of cultivated-chicken cell biomass per plant in calendar year 2027? Probability (%) (optional) Reasoning (optional) CM_01 · A2 · Conditional actual cost in 2027¶ Conditional on one or more firms producing at least 2,000 metric tonnes per plant during 2027, what will be the actual production-weighted average cost per kg across those plants? A2 is inapplicable when B is 0%. If you can give a meaningful cost estimate (optional) Median ($/kg, 2025 USD) Optional uncertainty range (10th and 90th percentiles) 10th percentile ($/kg) 90th percentile ($/kg) Reasoning or explanation (optional) CM_01 · D · Worldwide sales in 2027¶ How many tonnes of cultivated-chicken biomass will be sold worldwide during calendar year 2027? Use the same sales definition as D 2036: all plant sizes, cellular component in blends only, counted once at first commercial sale; exclude free samples and research-only transfers. Zero is valid. Median sales (tonnes) (optional; zero is valid) Optional uncertainty range (10th and 90th percentiles) 10th percentile sales (tonnes) 90th percentile sales (tonnes) Reasoning (optional)