Selected questions from the Cultivated Meat PQ formulations (CM_01, CM_02, CM_10, CM_12–14, CM_16–17, CM_20). Last updated: May 2026.
State your beliefs on cost trajectories, commercial viability, and animal welfare implications of cultivated meat.
These are key operationalized questions from our Cultivated Meat Pivotal Questions project. We want to elicit expert and stakeholder beliefs — before, during, and after reviewing the TEA evidence — to see how views evolve and where consensus exists or doesn't. See our resources page for the key papers informing these questions. (All questions are optional.)
Sharing policy: Response content will be shared within the participant group and published publicly. You can choose whether to keep your individual responses anonymous (not attributed to you by name) or allow others to see your name alongside your response — simply leave the name field blank to remain anonymous.
You don't need to be a specialist to contribute. We want your honest assessment and reasoning, whether you feel highly confident or very uncertain. Your input helps us understand the range of views in the field.
Several CM cost questions are also live on Metaculus for public forecasting.
The focal cost question is live on Metaculus: CM_01 — production cost per kg →. The expert-aggregation version is at CM_03 →. If you forecast on Metaculus, please share your username below so we can link your contributions.
This form is a lightweight structured survey — not a formal expert elicitation protocol. For a discussion of methodology, model limitations, and what a more rigorous process would look like, see the model limits & critique page →
Average Production Cost (AC) = (Annualized capital charge + all operating costs) ÷ annual kilograms of cultured chicken cell biomass (wet weight, at harvestWet weight = the mass of cells as harvested from the bioreactor, including water. Typically ~75–90% water depending on cell line, density, and how much dewatering occurs during separation. We use 80% as our reference assumption. See the 'Cultured-chicken meat' definition above for full details.)Does not include: Downstream scaffolding added during product structuring; texturization; blending with plant-based or other non-cellular ingredients; packaging; distribution; retail markups; R&D amortization; regulatory approval costs; or marketing.
- Capital charge: Total capital investment (bioreactors, facility) amortized over the plant life using the Capital Recovery Factor, adjusted for financing costs (WACC)
- Operating costs include: Basal media (amino acids, glucose, vitamins, buffers), recombinant growth factors, utilities, consumables, labor, maintenance, and plant overhead
Output basis note: "Wet weight, at harvest" = the mass of cells after separation from spent media, before any further processing. This is the same object as "edible kg before mixture with plant products" — at the harvest stage, wet-weight cell biomass is the edible component. This aligns with the cost model, which expresses all outputs on the same wet-weight, factory-gate basis.
Why average production cost? Standard economic theory predicts that competitive markets drive prices toward the minimum of the long-run average total cost curve. This represents the lowest sustainable price in a free market. We ask for the median estimate (your 50th percentile) across the range of plausible 2036 technology scenarios, reflecting your uncertainty about which trajectory the industry takes.
Cultured chicken cell biomass: Undifferentiated (proliferating) chicken cell mass produced in bioreactors — prior to any directed differentiation step — measured before any blending with plant-based or other non-cellular ingredients, and before texturization or downstream structuring.
Scaffold assumption: For this exercise, please assume that harvested cell biomass contains minimal non-degraded scaffolding material (<10% w/ww/w = weight per weight. Here: the mass of scaffold material as a percentage of the total wet-weight harvest mass.). Most TEAs for unstructured products (ground meat, hybrid products) assume suspension culture where this is not an issue. If your estimate involves scaffold-based production where structural material remains in the harvest, please note this and base your cost estimate on the cellular fraction only. We measure on a wet-weight basis (as harvested from the bioreactor — typically ~75–90% water depending on cell line, density, and post-harvest dewatering; we use 80% as our reference assumption). [hydration note]Water content at harvest varies substantially (potentially 75–95%) depending on: cell type and size, bioreactor density, centrifugation protocol, and how much dewatering occurs during cell separation. Published TEAs often don't state their assumed hydration, which means cost comparisons across papers may be subtly inconsistent — a 10% hydration difference can substantially alter $/kg wet weight. We use 80% as a reference. Feedback welcome: if you have a view on the right convention or your estimate assumes a specific hydration, please note it in your reasoning field.
Alignment note: "Before mixture" and "wet weight at harvest" refer to the same accounting object. At the factory-gate stage, the wet-weight cell biomass is the edible cultured component — nothing non-edible has been added yet. So "edible kg before mixture," "wet-weight cell biomass at harvest," and "pure cell mass" are all equivalent at this stage.
Why chicken? Among cultured meat products, chicken has the highest stakes for animal welfare (assuming 'like substitutes for like'). Forecasters may base estimates on bovine or generic-mammal TEAs and explain their conversion method.
Why "before blending"? Animal cells are often mixed with plant-based inputs (hydrolysates, plant protein) to reduce total product cost. We focus on the pure cell biomass cost because: (1) it is the technically challenging and costly component; (2) it is what the cost model estimates; (3) blended product costs can be derived from it given a mixing ratio and filler cost.
Large-scale plants: Plants producing more than 2 kt/yr (2,000 metric tons per year). We exclude smaller experimental/R&D facilities.
Value units: Inflation-adjusted (CPI) 2025 US dollars.
Target years:
Why these years? These are the years Rethink Priorities chose for their forecasting work, allowing us to harmonize and compare estimates. 2051 represents a "30-year terminal horizon" when production would have more or less achieved an efficient optimum.
When we ask for a probability, we're asking for your best calibrated subjective probability—your honest credence given everything you know.
One way to think about this: Imagine an ideal research team with unlimited resources, time, and data—perhaps even a kind of omniscience where they could perfectly understand the welfare and psychological states of everyone affected. What probability would you assign that this idealized team would ultimately conclude the statement is true?
Note: We avoid anchoring to "0% = impossible" and "100% = certain" because perfect certainty is rarely justified. [more]"Extremely unlikely but not impossible" should be a low but nonzero probability; "nearly certain but not absolutely so" should be high but below 100%. Use your own calibrated judgment — a wide interval is more honest than false precision.
Selected questions from the Cultivated Meat PQ formulations (CM_01, CM_02, CM_10, CM_12–14, CM_16–17, CM_20). Last updated: May 2026.