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Title
Welcome everyone. These slides are just visual aids — we'll move through them quickly. The real content is what we'll discuss together over the next few hours.
David Reinstein + The Unjournal
I'm David Reinstein — economics researcher and co-director of The Unjournal. I was previously at Rethink Priorities. I'm not a cultivated meat expert; I'm here to facilitate and learn alongside you. The Unjournal commissions rigorous public peer evaluation of research on global priorities — 100+ packages so far, all paid, transparent, and citable.
Pivotal Questions Initiative
The Pivotal Questions initiative starts from what funders and decision-makers genuinely need to know — not from what's academically fashionable. Crucially, it combines two things: evaluating existing research evidence by commissioning expert evaluations, and eliciting calibrated beliefs from domain experts on key uncertainties. Both feed into a synthesis designed to be actionable for decision-makers.
Why Cultured Meat?
For CM, the pivotal question is cost. The histogram on the right is from our model — projected 2036 production costs with a wide range from optimistic to pessimistic. That spread reflects real uncertainty in the underlying parameters. It matters enormously for where animal welfare funders should direct resources.
From Question to Workshop
The equation at the top shows the basic cost structure: variable operating costs, annualized CAPEX, fixed OPEX, and downstream processing. We started by reviewing the TEA literature and found wide-ranging estimates, traced back to a handful of key assumptions. We built an interactive model — very much a first pass. It's there to give us a shared structure for discussing assumptions, not to provide answers. Today's workshop brings real expertise to the table.
The Interactive Cost Model (WIP)
The bar chart shows a sample output — at some chosen parameters, media costs dominate at 55%, growth factors at 28%, CAPEX at 10%. The model runs 30,000 Monte Carlo scenarios and lets you adjust cell density, media costs, growth factor prices, and more. I encourage you to explore it during the breaks.
Workshop Goals
Five goals for today. Frontier synthesis: pooling researchers, practitioners, and forecasters to reach the edge of what's collectively known. Common language: agreeing on what we mean by "cost per kg." Mapping disagreements: finding the cruxes. Eliciting beliefs: capturing calibrated estimates. And building collaboration tools — understanding what works when researchers, practitioners, and forecasters tackle hard quantitative questions together.
Belief Elicitation
The beliefs form captures estimates at three points: before the workshop, during/after our discussion, and later after seeing others' responses. This structure lets us track how evidence and dialogue shift expert opinion. The Metaculus image shows what a belief distribution looks like in practice — two forecasters with very different views. Responses will be published, attributed or anonymous as you prefer.
The Questions
CM_01 is the central question — production cost per kg by 2036. The technical subquestions (CM_12, CM_14, CM_16) help us understand the components driving it. CM_10 connects cost to the actual animal welfare funding decision. For each, give your median estimate and your 80% credible interval.
Today's Agenda
Three sessions. Session 1 is public and recorded — technical foundations: this intro, then Oana on gene editing, Aleksandra on hydrolysates, then six structured discussion topics. Session 2 is internal and confidential — industry participants don't need to share trade secrets, but flagging "this doesn't match our real-world experience" is highly valuable, even without specifics. Session 3 starts confidential and goes public for the final 25 minutes. Please get a Hypothes.is account — I'll demo it right after these slides.
Epistemic Norms
A few quick norms. Scout mindset — seeking truth, not defending positions. Calibrated uncertainty — distinguish what you know from what you're estimating. Steel-man before critiquing. Track the crux: what evidence would most change your mind? That's the question to carry through the day.
Let's Begin
That's the overview. I'll do a quick Hypothes.is demo now. Then Oana will present on gene editing in cultured meat. Let's begin.