Questions adapted from the Cultivated Meat PQ formulations (codes: CM_01–CM_20). PRELIMINARY DRAFT — Last updated: February 2026.
State your beliefs on cost trajectories, commercial viability, and animal welfare implications of cultivated meat.
These are key operationalized questions from our Cultivated Meat Pivotal Questions project. We want to elicit expert and stakeholder beliefs—before, during, and after reviewing the TEA evidence—to see how views evolve and where consensus exists or doesn't. (All questions are optional.)
You don't need to be a specialist to contribute. We want your honest assessment and reasoning, whether you feel highly confident or very uncertain. Your input helps us understand the range of views in the field.
🔮 Forecasting: Several questions are live on our Metaculus forecasting page. This project connects to The Unjournal's Animal Welfare Forecasting Tournament in collaboration with Metaculus. If you forecast on Metaculus, please share your username below so we can link your contributions.
Average Production Cost (AC) = (Annualized capital charge + all operating costs) ÷ annual kilograms of edible cultured-meat outputDoes not include: R&D amortisation or clinical/regulatory approval costs (sunk costs), distribution, retail markups, downstream product formulation (making "nuggets" etc.), marketing, packaging, branding, corporate overhead, taxes, duties, or profits.
- Capital charge: From total capital investment (TCI) amortized over the plant life from a new firm that would enter this market, adjusted for market risk
- Operating costs include: Macronutrient & micronutrient media, utilities, consumables, labor, maintenance, and plant overhead
Why average production cost? Standard economic theory predicts that under specific 'best-case' conditions, firms will operate at the minimum point of their average total cost curves and prices will converge to this level. This represents the lowest possible sustainable price in a free market.
Cultured-chicken meat: Chicken-imitating products. We consider the weight of these products before any mixture with plant products.
Why chicken? Among the cultured meat products discussed, chicken has the highest stakes for animal welfare (assuming 'like substitutes for like'). However, forecasters could base estimates on bovine or generic-mammal TEAs and explain their conversion method.
Why "before mixture"? Animal cells may be mixed with plant-based inputs to reduce costs. We want evaluators to focus on the cost of the most expensive and innovative part of production.
Large-scale plants: Plants producing more than 2 kt/yr (2,000 metric tons per year). We exclude smaller experimental/R&D facilities.
Value units: Inflation-adjusted (CPI) 2025 US dollars.
Target years:
Why these years? These are the years Rethink Priorities chose for their forecasting work, allowing us to harmonize and compare estimates. 2051 represents a "30-year terminal horizon" when production would have more or less achieved an efficient optimum.
When we ask for a probability, we're asking for your best calibrated subjective probability—your honest credence given everything you know.
One way to think about this: Imagine an ideal research team with unlimited resources, time, and data—perhaps even a kind of omniscience where they could perfectly understand the welfare and psychological states of everyone affected. What probability would you assign that this idealized team would ultimately conclude the statement is true?
Note: We avoid anchoring to "0% = impossible" and "100% = certain" because perfect certainty is rarely justified. If you believe something is extremely unlikely but not literally impossible, you might say 2-5%; if nearly certain but not absolutely, perhaps 95-98%.
Questions adapted from the Cultivated Meat PQ formulations (codes: CM_01–CM_20). PRELIMINARY DRAFT — Last updated: February 2026.